Falling Fertility Rates: Why Australia’s Real Issue Is Overpopulation, Not Ageing

Sustainable Population Australia (SPA) has welcomed news that Australia’s fertility rate has fallen to 1.5 children per woman, rejecting media claims that the drop represents an economic crisis. Some reports, such as comments from Australian National University demographer Liz Allen on ABC radio, have painted a grim picture. Allen remarked, “Once we hit this figure, we are basically staring down the barrel of no return.”

However, SPA National President Peter Strachan dismissed this view, calling it unwarranted fearmongering.

“Europe has maintained a fertility rate of around 1.5 for decades, with low population growth, and most EU nations have outperformed Australia on per capita economic measures,” said Strachan. “A lower fertility rate in Australia may actually allow us to sustain a slightly higher immigration intake while maintaining a stable population. For example, a fertility rate of 1.5 allows for 90,000 net migrants per year, compared to just 75,000 if fertility were 1.6.”

Chart: Australia’s fertility is now about the average in the developed world, while our net migration rate is well ahead of other countries Far from recruiting too few people, our problem is population growth.

Balancing Immigration and Population Growth

Strachan emphasized that recent government policies have driven net migration rates far beyond sustainable levels, with figures exceeding half a million migrants annually—around six or seven times higher than what is needed for population stability.

“It’s tragic that many people are delaying or avoiding having children because they can’t afford decent housing,” Strachan said. “If Australia were to stabilize its population, housing could become more affordable, which might encourage higher fertility rates. However, achieving that would require drastically reducing immigration from its current levels.”

He further argued that the real economic threat comes not from declining fertility but from rapid population growth. “Even if no children were born in Australia, the population would still grow due to our high immigration rates. This narrative that we are running out of people is absurd. What’s truly crippling the economy is the unsustainable growth, driven by over 80% of our population increase coming from immigration. Infrastructure is buckling, housing is unaffordable, and services are overstretched.”

Strachan also challenged the notion that an ageing population poses an economic crisis: “No country has experienced economic decline solely due to ageing or a smaller workforce. The so-called ‘crisis’ is a myth used to justify higher immigration to boost corporate profits, all while lowering living standards and damaging the natural environment.”